Modelling Mosquito Population Suppression Based on Delay Differential Equations
主讲人信息：庾建设，教授，博士生导师，原广州大学校长。主要从事微分方程动力系统、差分方程及生物数学模型的理论与应用研究，在《J. Differential Equations》、《SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics》、《Journal of Mathematics Biology》、《中国科学》等国内外学术期刊发表论文100多篇，国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金获得者，先后主持国家自然科学基金重点项目3项、国家自然科学基金面上项目4项，主持教育部高校博士点基金和其他省部级基金10余项。入选国家“百千万人才工程”第一、二层次人选，被评为国家有突出贡献的中青年专家。
背景资料：Mosquito-borne diseases have threatened over half the world’s human beings. The most conventional methods for the control of these diseases have been insecticide spraying or larval source eradication. These methods are not sustainable to keep the mosquito density below the epidemic risk threshold. More recently, a novel strategy to suppress the mosquito population has been implemented in Saizi island, Guangzhou, China, since 2015. More than 95% of local population of Aedes Albopictus have been suppressed by releasing Wolbachia-infected male mosquitoes into natural mosquito population to induce cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) that eggs of wild females fail to hatch if fertilized by sperm from an infected male. In this paper, we propose to model the mosquito population suppression with the help of a delay differential equation model describing the suppression effect by releasing Wolbachia-infected male mosquitoes in the field. We first give a detailed and complete description of the global dynamics of solutions of the delay differential equation. And then, our results determine the release number threshold denoted by r* for the mosquito suppression. When the number of infected male mosquitoes released is above r*, it will guarantee the suppression effect in any circumstances, whereas when the release number is less than or equal to r*, it can only guarantee the suppression effect conditionally. Once some useful parameters are measured, we can calculate the release number threshold r* , which is helpful for the actual workers to release infected male mosquitoes in the field.